Can the U.S. set the stage for a successful Copenhagen Climate Change Conference?

The United States is the only developed nation that has not committed to an emissions target. Poorer nations are threatening to stage a walk-out of the UN summit in Copenhagen next month unless President Obama commits to an ambitious carbon reduction.

With the world’s climate crisis in peril, governments need to deliver a strong plan of action at the upcoming Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in December.

Perhaps the most influential figure in all of it is U.S. President Barack Obama, who is actively working to loosen the global deadlock in negotiations by announcing a target for cutting US greenhouse gas emissions.

So far, the United States is the only developed nation that has not committed to an emissions target. Poorer nations are threatening to stage a walk-out of the UN summit in Copenhagen next month unless President Obama commits to an ambitious carbon reduction.

Making good on promises

On the campaign trail in 2007 and 2008, then presidential-nominee Barack Obama proposed that the United States, under his influence as Commander-in-Chief, would reduce carbon emissions by 14% (as compared to 2005 levels).

Fast-forward less than one year into his presidency, a new climate bill spearheaded by former prez-nominee John Kerry is promising a greenhouse gas reduction of 20%.

Many Copenhagen-watchers expect that President Obama will wait until the final stages of the negotiations in Copenhagen to announce the U.S.’s emissions cuts, perhaps in an effort to achieve maximum political impact will giving other countries little-to-no chance to demand deeper cuts from the U.S.

President Obama is reportedly considering offering a range of possible reductions rather than a single number, making it easier for him to persuade Congress.

According to Jonathan Pershing, a leading US negotiator at the Barcelona climate talks, the U.S. will in fact announce a provisional target before the end of the Copenhagen summit.

“Developing countries, including the US, need to make robust mid-term reductions from a set base year.” said Pershing. “In the US we are moving to make a substantial contribution to a robust Copenhagen deal. We are very interested in seeing that deal move forward and we recognize that others are seeking numbers from us.”

He went on to add that President Obama could possibly a target commitment without Senate approval. “The executive body has authorities which are not exclusively reliant on Congress and that is a decision which has to be made.”

According to Yvo de Boer, the UN’s senior climate change official, the summit would achieve very little if President Obama does not announce a target.

“Copenhagen can and must be the turning point in the international fight against climate change – nothing has changed my confidence in that. A powerful combination of commitment and compromise can and must make this happen.”

No more business as usual

Until now, very little progress has been made with regards to the proper finances that would allow developing countries to limit their emissions growth and adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change.

According to Yvo de Boer, developed countries will need to expedite funding in the amount of at least $10 billion to enable developing countries to immediately develop low emission growth and adaptation strategies and to build internal capacity.

Additionally, developed countries will need to indicate how they intend to raise predictable and sustainable long-term financing and what there longer-term commitments will be.

The U.S. is planning a “substantial contribution” to a global fund aimed at helping developing countries adapt to climate change and pursue low-carbon economic growth. While the Obama administration is not expecting developing countries to cut their overall emissions entirely, it prefers to receive specific commitments from them on reducing their growth in emissions compared with the “business as usual” position.

“It is essential that practical action is swiftly implemented after Copenhagen to assist developing countries in their fight against climate change,” added de Boer.

Finding clarity

Earlier this year, heads of state and government pledged to “Seal the Deal!” in Copenhagen; providing clarity on: ambitious emission reduction targets of industrialized countries, supporting developing countries and scaling-up both financial and technological resources.

“I look to industrialized countries to raise their ambitions to meet the scale of the challenge we face,” said Yvo de Boer. “And I look to industrialzed nations for clarity on the amount of short and long-term finance they will commit.”

The UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen will take place from December 6-18, 2009.

Update on 11/11/09:
Former Vice President and Nobel Laureate Al Gore posted this on his blog:
“I was asked last week, ‘would it be helpful for President Obama to go to the United Nations conference on climate change in Copenhagen in December?’

“The answer is, of course, yes, and I think he probably will. I certainly hope he will. Given how high the stakes of this international meeting are, I think it would make a big difference. Because we’re the strongest economy, one of the two largest emitters of global warming pollution, and recognized as the natural leader of the world community, it’s important for us as Americans to fully appreciate the role we play.

“Since this is the most dangerous challenge the world has ever faced, and since the scientists have given us fresh warnings that we don’t have a lot of time to reduce global warming pollution, it’s really important for the United States to play the leadership role the rest of the world expects us to play.

“President Obama’s attendance in Copenhagen would be a clear signal of our leadership.”

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Al Gore, Barack Obama, climate change, Congress, Copenhagen, emissions, funding, government, greenhouse gas, Senate, U.S., United States