Is COP15 on the right track, or a losing battle?

With the Copenhagen Climate Conference off and running, former Vice President Al Gore takes a hard look at the numbers, and doesn’t like what he sees.

According to the Nobel Laureate and veteran climate campaigner whose name has become synonymous with global warming, Mr. Gore suggests that the targets to be outlined at COP15 are not nearly enough to combat the gloom and doom of climate change facing the planet today.

“Even if a deal is reached at the UN climate change talks in Copenhagen…it will only be the first step towards the far more radical cuts that are needed in global carbon emissions,” said Gore.

According to Gore, world leaders need to enact far more drastic measures in order to avoid the worst ramifications of global warming.

“Even a final treaty will have to set the stage for other tougher reductions at a later date,” he said. “We have already overshot the safe levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.”

At present, the set goal for the summit is to stabilize CO2 emissions at or below 450 parts per million. This reduction is supposed to be enough of a change to prevent a rise in average global temps of 2 degrees Celsius. Gore, however, suggests that his goal is not sufficient to get the job done, and that a much surer bet would be a reduction to 350 parts per million.

“Are we doing enough?” he asked. “The answer is obviously no — 450 is not the right target. But it is presently seen as beyond the capacity of governments around the world. We are stretching the capacity of governments even to hit a 450 target.”

“We are gambling with the future of human civilisation in accepting odds that by any definition make our present course reckless . . . But it’s still the most likely path to success.”

Pressuring Obama

Gore, an advocate for President Barack Obama during the 2008 campaign, is challenging the President to include more stringent cuts in carbon emissions than the current ofering of a 17% reduction by 2020.

With the US being the planet’s second-largest carbon polluter, Gore states that country’s reduction figure is “weaker than it should be”. However, he suggests that the real roadblock for Obama is getting tough carbon regulation through the House of Representatives.

“I’m glad that he is putting reduction targets on the table. I wish that they were stronger but I recognise the difficulties he faces in the Senate.”

Playing the carbon markets

Gore supports an international carbon taxation system as a means to cut fossil-fuel emissions, yet is cautious that current political struggles will get in the way for a meaningful resolution.

With perhaps years to go until such a system can be put into place, the former Vice President suggests, for the interim, a carbon emissions trading system as a more realistic “first step”.  He has been criticized for this viewpoint by many on both sides of the aisle who do not view carbon markets as a solution to climate change.

“The correct policy response will include both of these powerful tools,” he added. “But the degree of political difficulty associated with a carbon tax is a degree of difficulty much higher than the cap and trade approach.”